SJK vs HJK
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-03 · 18:00 CET
WDLLD
WLWWDThe score model made an HJK win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 64%). It finished 3:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: SJK 1.48 – 1.84 HJK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJK win | 30.9% | 28.3% | +2.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.9% | 24.6% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| HJK win | 46.2% | 47.2% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.4% | 62.0% | +2.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.4% | 41.6% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 65.1% | 63.8% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.6% | 42.4% | -7.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: SJK 33 / HJK 32.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.