SJK vs HJK
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-03 · 16:00
The score model makes an HJK win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 64%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: SJK 1.45 – 1.83 HJK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| SJK win | 30.1% | 28.8% | +1.3% |
| Draw | 23.7% | 24.9% | -1.2% |
| HJK win | 46.1% | 46.3% | -0.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.7% | 62.2% | +1.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.5% | 41.7% | -0.1% |
| Both teams to score | 64.8% | 63.8% | +1.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.6% | 42.7% | -8.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: SJK 33.2 / HJK 33 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.