VPS vs Inter Turku
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-02 · 14:00 CET
LWLWL
WDWLWThe score model made an Inter Turku win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: VPS 1.11 – 1.26 Inter Turku.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VPS win | 32.1% | 35.8% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.9% | 28.4% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Inter Turku win | 39.0% | 35.8% | +3.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.3% | 48.1% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.5% | 27.6% | -6.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.6% | 54.2% | -5.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.2% | 32.7% | -0.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: VPS 33.2 / Inter Turku 33.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.