VPS vs Inter Turku
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-02 · 12:00
The score model makes an Inter Turku win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 42%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: VPS 1.11 – 1.26 Inter Turku.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| VPS win | 31.7% | 35.8% | -4.1% |
| Draw | 29.1% | 28.4% | +0.8% |
| Inter Turku win | 39.2% | 35.8% | +3.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.2% | 48.1% | -6.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.4% | 27.6% | -6.1% |
| Both teams to score | 48.6% | 54.3% | -5.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.5% | 32.7% | -0.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: VPS 33.3 / Inter Turku 33.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.