AC Oulu vs Ilves
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-02 · 16:00 CET
LWDLL
LWLLLThe score model made an Ilves win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 64%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AC Oulu 1.46 – 1.85 Ilves.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Oulu win | 30.3% | 41.4% | -11.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.4% | 26.6% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Ilves win | 46.3% | 32.0% | +14.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.3% | 55.8% | +8.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.2% | 34.7% | +7.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 65.2% | 59.5% | +5.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.6% | 38.0% | -0.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AC Oulu 33 / Ilves 33.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.