AC Oulu vs Ilves
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-02 · 14:00
The score model makes an Ilves win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 64%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AC Oulu 1.45 – 1.85 Ilves.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Oulu win | 29.9% | 39.5% | -9.6% |
| Draw | 23.6% | 26.8% | -3.2% |
| Ilves win | 46.5% | 33.6% | +12.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.0% | 55.8% | +8.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.9% | 35.1% | +6.8% |
| Both teams to score | 65.0% | 59.6% | +5.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.9% | 38.1% | -0.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AC Oulu 33.1 / Ilves 33.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.