Lahti vs Jaro
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-01 · 15:00
The score model makes a Lahti win the most likely outcome at 53%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lahti 1.54 – 0.84 Jaro.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lahti win | 53.3% | 56.4% | -3.1% |
| Draw | 26.9% | 23.6% | +3.3% |
| Jaro win | 19.8% | 20.0% | -0.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.5% | 57.4% | -14.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.7% | 36.5% | -14.8% |
| Both teams to score | 45.2% | 56.8% | -11.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.0% | 39.1% | -5.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lahti 23.2 / Jaro 25.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.