Gnistan vs KuPS
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-01 · 16:00
The score model makes an KuPS win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gnistan 1.19 – 1.62 KuPS.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gnistan win | 27.4% | 30.0% | -2.6% |
| Draw | 25.8% | 25.9% | -0.1% |
| KuPS win | 46.8% | 44.1% | +2.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | 56.1% | -3.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.8% | 35.0% | -4.2% |
| Both teams to score | 56.2% | 58.5% | -2.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.7% | 38.1% | -5.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gnistan 30.5 / KuPS 33.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.