Gnistan vs KuPS
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-01 · 18:00 CET
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DWLLDThe score model made a KuPS win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gnistan 1.18 – 1.62 KuPS.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gnistan win | 27.3% | 30.0% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.8% | 25.9% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| KuPS win | 46.9% | 44.1% | +2.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | 56.3% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.8% | 35.6% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.2% | 59.3% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.8% | 38.5% | -5.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gnistan 30.4 / KuPS 32.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.