Flora vs Parnu JK Vaprus
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-09-20 · 18:00 CET
WLLWL
LDDLLThe score model made a Flora win the most likely outcome at 70%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 3:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Flora 2.34 – 0.92 Parnu JK Vaprus.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flora win | 69.9% | 63.0% | +6.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 16.1% | 20.1% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| Parnu JK Vaprus win | 14.0% | 16.9% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.3% | 67.6% | -4.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.2% | 48.9% | -7.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.6% | 61.3% | -7.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.9% | 47.1% | +0.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Flora 51.3 / Parnu JK Vaprus 51.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Flora vs Parnu JK Vaprus in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.