Harju JK Laagri vs Kuressaare
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-09-18 · 18:00 CET
WWWWL
DWWLLThe score model made a Harju JK Laagri win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Harju JK Laagri 1.75 – 1.12 Kuressaare.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harju JK Laagri win | 53.5% | 44.8% | +8.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.9% | 25.4% | -4.5% | ✓ |
| Kuressaare win | 25.6% | 29.7% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.6% | 61.4% | -6.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.3% | 41.9% | -9.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.2% | 63.4% | -9.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.0% | 42.6% | -5.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Harju JK Laagri 43 / Kuressaare 51.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Harju JK Laagri vs Kuressaare in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.