Parnu JK Vaprus vs Levadia
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-08-02 · 16:00
The score model makes an Levadia win the most likely outcome at 67%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Parnu JK Vaprus 0.89 – 2.15 Levadia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parnu JK Vaprus win | 15.2% | 10.4% | +4.9% |
| Draw | 17.8% | 16.9% | +0.9% |
| Levadia win | 67.0% | 72.7% | -5.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.6% | 64.3% | -5.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.2% | 43.9% | -7.7% |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | 51.1% | +0.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.7% | 44.1% | +1.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Parnu JK Vaprus 48.5 / Levadia 47.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.