Kalju vs Tammeka
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-08-02 · 14:00
The score model makes a Kalju win the most likely outcome at 71%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kalju 2.22 – 0.78 Tammeka.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalju win | 70.9% | 61.7% | +9.2% |
| Draw | 16.7% | 21.5% | -4.9% |
| Tammeka win | 12.4% | 16.8% | -4.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.6% | 60.4% | -2.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.2% | 39.4% | -4.2% |
| Both teams to score | 47.4% | 56.1% | -8.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.3% | 41.4% | +4.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kalju 48.5 / Tammeka 46.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.