Kalju vs Tammeka
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-08-02 · 16:00 CET
LLLLW
WLWLWThe score model made a Kalju win the most likely outcome at 71%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 5:1 (HT 5:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kalju 2.22 – 0.78 Tammeka.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalju win | 70.9% | 58.6% | +12.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 16.7% | 22.7% | -6.0% | ✗ |
| Tammeka win | 12.4% | 18.7% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.6% | 60.1% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.2% | 39.6% | -4.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 47.4% | 57.2% | -9.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.3% | 41.6% | +4.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kalju 48.4 / Tammeka 46.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.