Flora vs Harju JK Laagri
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-08-02 · 18:00 CET
LWWDW
WWLLWThe score model made a Flora win the most likely outcome at 76%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 68%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Flora 2.65 – 0.88 Harju JK Laagri.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flora win | 75.5% | 55.2% | +20.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 13.8% | 22.9% | -9.1% | ✗ |
| Harju JK Laagri win | 10.7% | 21.9% | -11.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.4% | 62.4% | +6.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.9% | 41.8% | +5.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | 61.1% | -7.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.7% | 43.1% | +4.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Flora 47.4 / Harju JK Laagri 38.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.