Brighton W vs Liverpool W
Women's Super League, England · 2026-11-15 · 15:00 CET
WLWWL
LLDLLThe score model makes a Brighton W win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 70.3% vs 62.3% implied (+7.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brighton W 1.56 – 1.19 Liverpool W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton W win | 45.9% | 48.7% | -2.8% |
| Draw | 25.1% | 22.4% | +2.6% |
| Liverpool W win | 29.1% | 28.9% | +0.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.9% | 57.7% | -5.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.7% | 37.7% | -7.9% |
| Both teams to score | 55.0% | 57.7% | -2.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.8% | 39.7% | -2.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Brighton W 31.5 / Liverpool W 31.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Brighton W vs Liverpool W in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.