Chelsea W vs Manchester City W
Women's Super League, England · 2026-11-14 · 15:00 CET
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WWDWWThe score model makes a Chelsea W win the most likely outcome at 51%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Manchester City W win — 25.7% vs 18.9% implied (+6.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chelsea W 1.88 – 1.28 Manchester City W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea W win | 51.5% | 59.4% | -7.9% |
| Draw | 22.8% | 21.7% | +1.1% |
| Manchester City W win | 25.7% | 18.9% | +6.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.2% | 64.1% | -2.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.8% | 43.7% | -4.9% |
| Both teams to score | 61.3% | 60.9% | +0.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.2% | 44.6% | -0.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Chelsea W 31.5 / Manchester City W 31.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Chelsea W vs Manchester City W in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.