Arsenal W vs London City Lionesses W
Women's Super League, England · 2026-11-14 · 18:30 CET
LDWDW
WWDLWThe score model makes an Arsenal W win the most likely outcome at 56%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 64.3% vs 61.9% implied (+2.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Arsenal W 1.91 – 1.11 London City Lionesses W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal W win | 55.8% | 57.0% | -1.2% |
| Draw | 22.3% | 22.5% | -0.3% |
| London City Lionesses W win | 21.9% | 20.5% | +1.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.1% | 59.2% | -1.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.7% | 38.1% | -2.4% |
| Both teams to score | 57.2% | 57.6% | -0.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.1% | 40.2% | -0.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Arsenal W 31.7 / London City Lionesses W 20.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.