Tottenham W vs Brighton W
Women's Super League, England · 2026-11-08 · 15:00 CET
WLLLW
LWLWWThe score model makes a Tottenham W win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Tottenham W win — 46.2% vs 42.1% implied (+4.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tottenham W 1.90 – 1.55 Brighton W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham W win | 46.2% | 42.1% | +4.1% |
| Draw | 22.2% | 24.9% | -2.7% |
| Brighton W win | 31.6% | 32.9% | -1.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.9% | 64.9% | +2.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.2% | 44.5% | +0.7% |
| Both teams to score | 67.0% | 66.3% | +0.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 48.7% | 44.7% | +4.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Tottenham W 30.9 / Brighton W 31 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Tottenham W vs Brighton W in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.