Manchester City W vs West Ham W
Women's Super League, England · 2026-11-07 · 13:30 CET
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LLWLWThe score model makes a Manchester City W win the most likely outcome at 79%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 71%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Both teams to score — 52.9% vs 46.1% implied (+6.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Manchester City W 2.88 – 0.82 West Ham W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City W win | 79.3% | 83.6% | -4.2% |
| Draw | 12.9% | 10.6% | +2.3% |
| West Ham W win | 7.8% | 5.9% | +1.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.4% | 72.4% | -1.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50.6% | 53.8% | -3.2% |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | 46.1% | +6.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.8% | 51.5% | -1.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Manchester City W 30.8 / West Ham W 30.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Manchester City W vs West Ham W in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.