Liverpool W vs Arsenal W
Women's Super League, England · 2026-11-07 · 13:00 CET
WLLDL
LLDWDThe score model makes an Arsenal W win the most likely outcome at 61%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Arsenal W win — 61.3% vs 49.2% implied (+12.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Liverpool W 0.90 – 1.92 Arsenal W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool W win | 17.0% | 28.4% | -11.4% |
| Draw | 21.7% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| Arsenal W win | 61.3% | 49.2% | +12.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.6% | 59.6% | -5.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.4% | 38.9% | -7.6% |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% | 58.3% | -7.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.5% | 40.4% | +3.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Liverpool W 31 / Arsenal W 31.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Liverpool W vs Arsenal W in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.