Chelsea W vs Everton W
Women's Super League, England · 2026-11-07 · 13:30 CET
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LWLLDThe score model makes a Chelsea W win the most likely outcome at 85%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 69%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Chelsea W win — 85.3% vs 80.6% implied (+4.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chelsea W 2.97 – 0.56 Everton W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea W win | 85.3% | 80.6% | +4.7% |
| Draw | 10.3% | 12.4% | -2.1% |
| Everton W win | 4.4% | 7.0% | -2.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.5% | 68.0% | +0.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.0% | 48.2% | -1.2% |
| Both teams to score | 40.9% | 45.6% | -4.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 82.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 51.1% | 47.2% | +4.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Chelsea W 30.8 / Everton W 30.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Chelsea W vs Everton W in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.