Aston Villa W vs Manchester Utd W
Women's Super League, England · 2026-11-07 · 13:30 CET
LDWWD
WWWDDThe score model makes a Manchester Utd W win the most likely outcome at 57%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 64.5% vs 61.2% implied (+3.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Aston Villa W 1.08 – 1.93 Manchester Utd W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa W win | 20.8% | 20.0% | +0.8% |
| Draw | 22.1% | 22.1% | -0.1% |
| Manchester Utd W win | 57.2% | 57.9% | -0.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.9% | 59.8% | -1.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.5% | 38.8% | -3.3% |
| Both teams to score | 56.5% | 57.3% | -0.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.4% | 40.8% | +1.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Aston Villa W 30.9 / Manchester Utd W 30.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Aston Villa W vs Manchester Utd W in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.