Sutton vs Forest Green
National League, England · 2026-09-26 · 16:00 CET
DLLWW
DLLWDThe score model made a Forest Green win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 3:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sutton 1.11 – 1.57 Forest Green.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sutton win | 26.9% | 34.5% | -7.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.2% | 28.0% | -2.8% | ✓ |
| Forest Green win | 47.9% | 37.5% | +10.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.3% | 51.1% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.3% | 30.2% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | 56.0% | -2.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.5% | 34.7% | -1.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sutton 49.6 / Forest Green 49.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sutton vs Forest Green in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.