Scunthorpe vs Hartlepool
National League, England · 2026-09-26 · 16:00 CET
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LWWLLThe score model made a Scunthorpe win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 4:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Scunthorpe 1.62 – 1.11 Hartlepool.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scunthorpe win | 49.2% | 44.5% | +4.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.8% | 25.4% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Hartlepool win | 25.9% | 30.1% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.2% | 58.2% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.1% | 37.5% | -8.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | 60.1% | -6.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.5% | 39.4% | -8.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Scunthorpe 39.8 / Hartlepool 56.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Scunthorpe vs Hartlepool in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.