Aldershot vs Tamworth
National League, England · 2026-09-26 · 16:00 CET
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WWLWLThe score model made an Aldershot win the most likely outcome at 44%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 5:1 (HT 4:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Aldershot 1.84 – 1.58 Tamworth.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldershot win | 44.1% | 38.0% | +6.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.5% | 25.4% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Tamworth win | 33.4% | 36.6% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.4% | 61.9% | +4.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.6% | 41.4% | +3.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 66.8% | 64.2% | +2.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.3% | 42.4% | +1.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Aldershot 59.1 / Tamworth 49.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Aldershot vs Tamworth in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.