Tamworth vs Wealdstone
National League, England · 2026-09-19 · 13:30 CET
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WDLLWThe score model made a Tamworth win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tamworth 1.84 – 1.48 Wealdstone.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tamworth win | 46.1% | 48.2% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.8% | 24.1% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Wealdstone win | 31.2% | 27.7% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.5% | 62.7% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.4% | 42.1% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 65.1% | 63.6% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.8% | 42.6% | +0.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Tamworth 49.2 / Wealdstone 58.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Tamworth vs Wealdstone in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.