Gateshead vs Southend
National League, England · 2026-09-19 · 16:00 CET
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LDWWDThe score model made a Southend win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 1:6 (HT 0:6) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gateshead 1.11 – 1.74 Southend.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gateshead win | 24.2% | 17.3% | +6.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.9% | 22.3% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Southend win | 51.9% | 60.4% | -8.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.1% | 55.8% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.8% | 35.2% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | 52.8% | +2.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.3% | 38.5% | -3.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gateshead 59.1 / Southend 60.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Gateshead vs Southend in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.