Forest Green vs Boston Utd
National League, England · 2026-09-19 · 16:00 CET
LDDLL
LDLLLThe score model made a Forest Green win the most likely outcome at 57%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Forest Green 1.81 – 0.95 Boston Utd.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forest Green win | 57.3% | 54.6% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.1% | 23.6% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Boston Utd win | 19.6% | 21.8% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% | 59.7% | -7.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.9% | 39.1% | -9.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.5% | 59.2% | -7.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.6% | 40.7% | -7.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Forest Green 49 / Boston Utd 49.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Forest Green vs Boston Utd in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.