Yeovil vs Gateshead
National League, England · 2026-08-22 · 13:30 CET
DWWWL
WLLLDThe score model made a Yeovil win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 3:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Yeovil 1.34 – 1.26 Gateshead.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yeovil win | 38.3% | 45.6% | -7.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.2% | 27.6% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Gateshead win | 34.5% | 26.8% | +7.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.9% | 49.2% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.2% | 29.0% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | 53.6% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.0% | 33.4% | +2.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Yeovil 49.1 / Gateshead 56.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.