Woking vs AFC Fylde
National League, England · 2026-08-22 · 13:30 CET
LWLDL
WLWWDThe score model made a Woking win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 3:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Woking 1.74 – 1.05 AFC Fylde.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woking win | 53.4% | 38.6% | +14.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.3% | 26.5% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| AFC Fylde win | 22.3% | 34.9% | -12.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | 56.1% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.6% | 35.4% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.9% | 59.7% | -5.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.8% | 38.0% | -5.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Woking 56.4 / AFC Fylde 23.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.