Sutton vs Hartlepool
National League, England · 2026-08-22 · 13:30 CET
WWWLL
WLLLWThe score model made a Sutton win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sutton 1.38 – 1.25 Hartlepool.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sutton win | 39.5% | 38.0% | +1.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.9% | 26.4% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Hartlepool win | 33.6% | 35.5% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.8% | 53.2% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.0% | 32.2% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | 57.7% | -4.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.8% | 36.4% | -9.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sutton 45.8 / Hartlepool 52.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.