Yeovil vs Carlisle
National League, England · 2026-08-15 · 16:00 CET
DWWWL
DWDWLThe score model made a Carlisle win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Yeovil 0.97 – 1.63 Carlisle.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yeovil win | 21.9% | 24.7% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.6% | 26.3% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Carlisle win | 52.5% | 49.0% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.2% | 50.5% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.4% | 29.6% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.4% | 53.6% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.2% | 34.2% | +1.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Yeovil 48.9 / Carlisle 30.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.