Southend vs Scunthorpe
National League, England · 2026-08-15 · 16:00 CET
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LLWLLThe score model made a Southend win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Southend 1.74 – 1.05 Scunthorpe.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southend win | 53.0% | 52.7% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 24.8% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Scunthorpe win | 22.4% | 22.5% | -0.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | 56.0% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.5% | 35.1% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% | 56.8% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.4% | 38.3% | -1.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Southend 58.1 / Scunthorpe 35.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.