Solihull Moors vs Boston Utd
National League, England · 2026-08-15 · 16:00 CET
LLLLD
WWLLDThe score model made a Solihull Moors win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Solihull Moors 1.61 – 1.27 Boston Utd.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solihull Moors win | 45.0% | 38.5% | +6.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.4% | 27.2% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Boston Utd win | 29.7% | 34.3% | -4.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.0% | 54.3% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.6% | 33.3% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.0% | 58.6% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.1% | 36.9% | -2.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Solihull Moors 56.2 / Boston Utd 45.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.