Gateshead vs Woking
National League, England · 2026-08-15 · 16:00 CET
WLLLD
LWLDLThe score model made a Woking win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gateshead 1.32 – 1.41 Woking.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gateshead win | 34.7% | 35.4% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.6% | 27.0% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Woking win | 38.7% | 37.6% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.3% | 54.9% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.2% | 34.1% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | 58.7% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.6% | 37.3% | -0.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gateshead 56.4 / Woking 56.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.