FC Halifax vs Boreham Wood
National League, England · 2026-08-15 · 16:00 CET
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WWWWWThe score model made a Boreham Wood win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Halifax 1.40 – 1.48 Boreham Wood.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Halifax win | 35.3% | 27.0% | +8.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.8% | 25.2% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Boreham Wood win | 38.9% | 47.7% | -8.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | 55.7% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.6% | 34.9% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 58.7% | 57.8% | +0.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.9% | 38.1% | -5.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Halifax 56.1 / Boreham Wood 41.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.