Aldershot vs Hartlepool
National League, England · 2026-08-15 · 16:00 CET
LDWDW
WLLLWThe score model made an Aldershot win the most likely outcome at 41%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Aldershot 1.60 – 1.45 Hartlepool.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldershot win | 40.7% | 30.7% | +10.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.9% | 25.8% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Hartlepool win | 34.4% | 43.5% | -9.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.8% | 54.7% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.4% | 33.6% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.6% | 57.8% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.5% | 37.1% | -1.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Aldershot 56.3 / Hartlepool 52.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.