Woking vs Sutton
National League, England · 2026-08-08 · 16:00 CET
LWLDL
WWWLLThe score model made a Woking win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Woking 1.67 – 0.96 Sutton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woking win | 53.5% | 45.2% | +8.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.3% | 26.3% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Sutton win | 21.2% | 28.5% | -7.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | 56.1% | -7.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.1% | 35.3% | -8.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% | 59.3% | -8.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.8% | 38.4% | -9.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Woking 56.1 / Sutton 45 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.