Forest Green vs FC Halifax
National League, England · 2026-08-08 · 16:00 CET
WLLLW
LWLWLThe score model made a Forest Green win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 3:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Forest Green 1.58 – 0.95 FC Halifax.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forest Green win | 51.7% | 57.3% | -5.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.2% | 23.6% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| FC Halifax win | 22.1% | 19.1% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.4% | 55.1% | -8.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.9% | 34.1% | -9.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | 54.2% | -5.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.8% | 38.5% | -7.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Forest Green 44.8 / FC Halifax 55.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.