Eastleigh vs Gateshead
National League, England · 2026-08-08 · 16:00 CET
LWWDL
WLLLDThe score model made an Eastleigh win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Eastleigh 1.67 – 1.45 Gateshead.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastleigh win | 42.4% | 41.0% | +1.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 25.6% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Gateshead win | 33.0% | 33.4% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.1% | 58.6% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.8% | 37.9% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.5% | 61.8% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.9% | 40.0% | +2.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Eastleigh 56 / Gateshead 56.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.