Boston Utd vs Aldershot
National League, England · 2026-08-08 · 16:00 CET
WWLLD
LDWDWThe score model made a Boston Utd win the most likely outcome at 49%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Boston Utd 1.88 – 1.36 Aldershot.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Utd win | 49.2% | 50.7% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.3% | 25.1% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Aldershot win | 27.5% | 24.3% | +3.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.0% | 57.5% | +5.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.8% | 36.7% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 63.6% | 58.6% | +5.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.6% | 39.1% | +4.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Boston Utd 45 / Aldershot 56.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.