Ebbsfleet vs Hemel Hempstead
National League South, England · 2026-09-08 · 20:45 CET
WLWWD
WLLDDThe score model made an Ebbsfleet win the most likely outcome at 55%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ebbsfleet 1.64 – 0.91 Hemel Hempstead.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebbsfleet win | 54.8% | 49.4% | +5.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.9% | 26.6% | -2.7% | ✓ |
| Hemel Hempstead win | 21.3% | 24.0% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.8% | 50.0% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.2% | 29.5% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.8% | 52.7% | -4.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.8% | 34.7% | -4.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ebbsfleet 33.6 / Hemel Hempstead 58.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.