Tonbridge vs Truro
National League South, England · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
DWWWL
WWLWWThe score model made a Truro win the most likely outcome at 38%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tonbridge 1.17 – 1.23 Truro.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tonbridge win | 35.2% | 35.3% | -0.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.8% | 27.9% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Truro win | 38.0% | 36.8% | +1.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.9% | 50.8% | -7.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.0% | 30.3% | -8.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.2% | 55.8% | -7.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.6% | 34.8% | -8.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Tonbridge 56.5 / Truro 22.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.