Salisbury vs Hemel Hempstead
National League South, England · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
LWDDW
WLLDDThe score model made a Salisbury win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Salisbury 1.22 – 1.07 Hemel Hempstead.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salisbury win | 39.9% | 35.9% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.4% | 27.6% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Hemel Hempstead win | 32.7% | 36.5% | -3.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.1% | 52.6% | -12.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.8% | 32.3% | -12.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.8% | 57.4% | -11.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.4% | 36.2% | -10.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Salisbury 45.2 / Hemel Hempstead 56.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.