Hampton & Richmond vs Slough
National League South, England · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
DLLLW
LLLLLThe score model made a Hampton & Richmond win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 5:3 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hampton & Richmond 1.75 – 1.59 Slough.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hampton & Richmond win | 42.2% | 43.3% | -1.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.1% | 26.1% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Slough win | 35.6% | 30.6% | +5.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.8% | 57.0% | +7.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.8% | 36.5% | +6.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 65.4% | 60.1% | +5.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.0% | 39.2% | +1.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hampton & Richmond 56.8 / Slough 55.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.