Braintree vs Horsham FC
National League South, England · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
LDLWW
WLDDDThe score model made a Braintree win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Braintree 1.17 – 0.99 Horsham FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braintree win | 40.4% | 30.5% | +9.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.3% | 27.9% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Horsham FC win | 31.3% | 41.6% | -10.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.8% | 49.2% | -12.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.4% | 28.9% | -11.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.0% | 53.8% | -10.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 19.1% | 33.7% | -14.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Braintree 12.3 / Horsham FC 32.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.