Torquay vs Weston-super-Mare
National League South, England · 2026-08-18 · 20:45 CET
DLWWW
WDLLWThe score model made a Torquay win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Torquay 1.45 – 1.09 Weston-super-Mare.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torquay win | 45.8% | 47.2% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.5% | 27.0% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| Weston-super-Mare win | 28.7% | 25.8% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.6% | 51.5% | -4.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.0% | 31.5% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.4% | 54.6% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.4% | 35.3% | -3.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Torquay 53.4 / Weston-super-Mare 32.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.