Horsham FC vs Hampton & Richmond
National League South, England · 2026-08-18 · 20:45 CET
WLDDD
DLLLWThe score model made a Horsham FC win the most likely outcome at 50%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Horsham FC 1.43 – 0.89 Hampton & Richmond.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horsham FC win | 50.1% | 47.8% | +2.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.2% | 26.6% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Hampton & Richmond win | 23.7% | 25.6% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.8% | 50.8% | -10.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.3% | 30.5% | -10.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.3% | 53.7% | -9.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 20.3% | 34.9% | -14.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Horsham FC 31.4 / Hampton & Richmond 56.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.