Hemel Hempstead vs Maidenhead
National League South, England · 2026-08-18 · 20:45 CET
WLLDD
LDWWLThe score model made a Maidenhead win the most likely outcome at 38%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 32%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hemel Hempstead 0.92 – 1.05 Maidenhead.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hemel Hempstead win | 31.4% | 41.4% | -10.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.3% | 29.1% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Maidenhead win | 38.3% | 29.5% | +8.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 58.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31.5% | 44.3% | -12.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13.8% | 24.4% | -10.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 38.7% | 50.0% | -11.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.1% | 30.3% | -8.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hemel Hempstead 56.3 / Maidenhead 32.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.