Dover vs Tonbridge
National League South, England · 2026-08-18 · 20:45 CET
DDLLW
DWWWLThe score model made a Tonbridge win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dover 1.35 – 1.47 Tonbridge.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dover win | 35.0% | 30.9% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.5% | 26.3% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Tonbridge win | 40.5% | 42.8% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.4% | 55.6% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.1% | 35.1% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% | 58.8% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.6% | 39.3% | -6.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dover 41.8 / Tonbridge 56 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.