AFC Totton vs Dorking
National League South, England · 2026-08-18 · 20:45 CET
LDWWL
WWDDDThe score model made a Dorking win the most likely outcome at 49%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AFC Totton 1.31 – 1.77 Dorking.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Totton win | 28.8% | 30.9% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.7% | 26.1% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Dorking win | 48.5% | 43.0% | +5.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.3% | 57.6% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.9% | 37.1% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.2% | 60.7% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.4% | 39.4% | +1.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AFC Totton 31.7 / Dorking 47.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.