Tonbridge vs Torquay
National League South, England · 2026-08-15 · 16:00 CET
DWWWL
DLWWWThe score model made a Torquay win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tonbridge 1.43 – 1.51 Torquay.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tonbridge win | 36.3% | 28.1% | +8.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.8% | 25.3% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Torquay win | 40.0% | 46.6% | -6.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.2% | 55.5% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.8% | 34.9% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.7% | 57.8% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.4% | 38.1% | +3.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Tonbridge 55.4 / Torquay 52.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.