Horsham FC vs Salisbury
National League South, England · 2026-08-15 · 16:00 CET
WLDDD
LWDDWThe score model made a Horsham FC win the most likely outcome at 45%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Horsham FC 1.28 – 0.92 Salisbury.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horsham FC win | 45.1% | 43.7% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.6% | 26.6% | +1.0% | ✓ |
| Salisbury win | 27.3% | 29.8% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.7% | 53.8% | -16.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.0% | 33.6% | -15.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.9% | 57.2% | -14.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 55.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 18.1% | 37.3% | -19.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Horsham FC 30.6 / Salisbury 44.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.