Weston-super-Mare vs Chesham
National League South, England · 2026-08-08 · 16:00 CET
WDLLW
WDLLLThe score model made a Weston-super-Mare win the most likely outcome at 45%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 3:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Weston-super-Mare 1.33 – 1.00 Chesham.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weston-super-Mare win | 44.8% | 40.2% | +4.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.8% | 28.0% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Chesham win | 28.4% | 31.8% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.1% | 45.4% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.6% | 25.6% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.0% | 51.0% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.4% | 32.2% | -9.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Weston-super-Mare 31.3 / Chesham 44.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.